The Hubbert Tribute is pleased to host the Outlook for Fuel Reserves (PDF 757k), a detailed analysis of the complete fossil fuel cycle written by Dr. M. K. Hubbert ca. 1974 and published in the McGraw-Hill Encyclopedia of Energy in 1976. The article begins with an overview of the energy systems of the Earth including a flow chart showing the relative magnitude of various energy sources and their relationship to the surface of the Earth. Hubbert then narrows the discussion to coal, oil and natural gas with a perspective on the exploitation of these fuels by humans in recent history.
After this introduction he devotes the rest of the article to a detailed discussion of three analyses applied to fossil fuel discovery, production and reserves: (1) the complete cycle analysis, (2) analysis of cumulative statistical data, and (3) discoveries per foot of exploratory drilling. Hubbert wraps up the discussion with some facts regarding the viability (or lack thereof) of shale oil and tar sands. The article ends with a sobering reminder that the fossil fuel age, which his analysis shows will span a mere three centuries, is little more than a blip when compared to the full extent of human history.
Published 20 years after his original 1956 presentation (and coincidentally about the same time that his predictions of a US oil production peak were being realized) this article gives a fresh perspective on Hubbert's thinking with new details and analysis that go far beyond the now famous "Hubbert Curve" of oil production. Thanks to Jerry McManus for finding and transcribing the paper.
An article by the "father of peak-oil" found in an old energy textbook which I stumbled on recently while idly browsing the engineeering stacks at the local University. I believe this article offers one or two new insights into Hubbert's thinking on the question of fossil fuel production:
First, so much of what is written about Hubbert seems to be stuck in a time warp going back to 1956 when he first presented his now famous bell-shaped curve. In this article we can now see that production curve in a new perspective as just one of three separate analyses that Hubbert applied to the complete fossil fuel cycle.
Second, while some excellent work has been done by Jean Laherrère and others on showing the relationship between oil discovery and production (what Hubbert calls the cumulative statistical data analysis), this article is the first time I've seen a relationship established between all three aspects of the complete fossil fuel cycle: discovery, production, AND reserves.
Third, the analysis that Hubbert presents as discovery per foot of exploratory drilling is a completely new analysis that I have not seen discussed anywhere else in over three years of following the peak-oil debate. Blogger WebHubbleTelescope agrees that this new analysis holds great potential for estimating the URR of fossil fuel reserves (or validating estimates derived by other means), as detailed in some outstanding work posted recently to his Mobjectivist blog:
mobjectivist.blogspot.com/2007/10/discover-redux.html
mobjectivist.blogspot.com/2007/10/dispersive-natural-gas-discoveries.html
